2018 Climate and Environment

Weather and Conflicts in Afghanistan

Monir Elias Bounadi

This Working Paper combine high-resolution data on temperature and precipitation with georeferenced data on conflict events to explore the link between local weather variations and conflict incidence for all districts of Afghanistan between July 2005 and December 2016.

The report was presented during the seminar Svenskt bistånd mot nya mål?

Main findings

  • Exchanging colder for warmer days tends to increase the likelihood of conflict.
  • Precipitation does not drive the occurrence of conflict.
  • Temperature shocks to opium production do not explain the observed temperature-conflict link.

Monir Elias Bounadi, Master’s Student, Department of Economics, Stockholm University