2025 Economic Development Evaluation

Forced Self Reliance? Protracted Displacement and Economic Inclusion: Cases from East Africa

Måns Fellesson, Mats Hårsmar

Driven by conflict, persecution, and various other factors, the global number of refugees and forcibly displaced persons has reached unprecedented heights. Given that returning to their places of origin is often infeasible, many refugees find themselves in prolonged, decadelong circumstances within camps or settlements.

As humanitarian assistance becomes increasingly restricted, innovative approaches to support refugee livelihoods are essential. International frameworks underscore the importance of refugee self-reliance and facilitating integration into the economies of host communities. Many initiatives aligned with these objectives are currently being implemented across the globe.

In this study, the authors explore the conditional and supporting factors that influence the effectiveness of interventions designed to promote economic self-reliance among refugees. They assess how the effects of these interventions align with the corresponding theories of change at the intervention level. The analysis focus on Uganda and Kenya, two countries recognised as frontrunners in this field. Furthermore, the report considers the broader applicability of the findings, both within these national contexts and beyond.

We aim for this study to be a valuable resource for policymakers and programme managers – at the Ministry for Foreign Affairs, Sida, embassies, as well as stakeholders within the UN system and other organizations – dedicated to supporting refugees in prolonged situa-tions and addressing the wider challenges of forced migration.

The report draws the following conclusions:

  • Support is underfunded.
  • There is a significant and increasing discrepancy between aspirations and actuality in this area.
  • This type of initiative requires a long-term perspective.