In today’s geopolitical environment, development aid increasingly intersects with foreign and security policy. Donor presence and behaviour have well-documented effects on recipient countries, not only economically, but also in shaping political preferences, institutional trust, and social attitudes.
Russia’s expanding engagement in Africa is one example where strategic action in the form of trade agreements, media ownership and political intervention are likely to affect traditional “Western” donor interests. If donor strategies shift in response to Russian involvement, these changes may have long-term developmental and geopolitical consequences.
In this report, the author uses an innovative combination of geospatial data, public opinion surveys and conflict mapping, where Russian and Wagner-linked activities are used to proxy for broader forms of Russian influence. It compares regions with and without, and before and after the arrival of Russian actors to assess the influence on development assistance as well as on the views of citizens across the continent.
The author finds that responses are not uniform. Some Western donors withdraw from contested areas, while others adapt or intensify their engagement. Moreover, Russian involvement, rather than increasing citizens’ support for Russian values and priorities, can foster positive views of U.S. leadership, even as it erodes trust in democratic norms.
The findings remind us that development cooperation does not take place in a vacuum: the presence of military contractors, disinformation efforts, and transactional partnerships can alter not only the operational space for aid actors, but also trust in democratic institutions, human rights, and inclusive governance. This understanding is important for a development cooperation that seeks meaningful impact.
The report warns that a Western withdrawal could create a power vacuum that authoritarian actors would swiftly exploit. The author therefore recommends maintaining a continued presence, improving strategic communication and increasing coordination between donors. Additionally, the importance of detailed geographic data for understanding and managing evolving geopolitical conditions is emphasised.