2018 Evaluation of Aid, Public Administration Mapping

Volatility in Swedish Aid: the Case of Six Long-term Partner Countries

Matilda Svedberg

Looking specifically at the case of Sweden, this working paper aims to provide insight to research and policies concerning aid volatility and generate comparable estimates of volatility in foreign aid.

The paper uses the coefficient of variation (CV) to estimate the volatility of Swedish Official Development Assistance (ODA) and Country Programmable Aid (CPA) to six different partner countries (Cambodia, Palestine, Mozambique, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda). Values are then compared to the corresponding volatility of total aid flows (from all donors) to the same six recipients.

Main findings

  • Overall, the estimates did not provide a clear view of which aid measure is the most volatile, neither ODA- nor CPA-measure is consistently more volatile than the other.
  • Most estimates point towards Swedish aid volatility being relatively low.
  • The one country that stood out with its high volatility estimates compared to others was Rwanda.

Matilda Svedberg