Conditional cash transfers (CCTs) have been widely promoted for their ability to simultaneously pursue the twin objectives of short-term poverty alleviation and long-term poverty reduction. Yet, CCTs’ alleged capabilities concerning long-term poverty reduction remain enigmatic, wrapped in theoretical assumptions and ‘taken-for-granted’ expectations. This dissertation accordingly looks at evidence, assumptions, and diffusion of CCTs in Latin America.
The report was presented during the seminar Svenska biståndsformer.
- Based on existing evidence on CCTs’ impact, long-term impact or the plausibility of assumed impact on intermediate and final outcomes remains unknown.
- Evidence of short-term average effects in localised contexts lack external validity. Most experimental and quasi-experimental evaluations estimate average effects, and hence provide no political economy information of interest to policymakers, such as distribution of effects.
- There is an overall lack of questions on CCTs in the region’s household surveys – the principal data collection instrument for evaluations. It becomes inherently difficult to single out CCTs’ effects in the presence of other reforms.