2021 Evaluation of Aid Description of method

Credible Explanations of Development Outcomes: Improving Quality and Rigour with Bayesian Theory-Based Evaluation

Barbara Befani

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This report presents an innovative methodology to conduct theory-based evaluations. It retains several advantages of both qualitative and quantitative methods. This report contains both an in-depth theoretical discussion of the epistemological tenets and a section with practical applications in policy evaluations that is likely to appeal to evaluators, researchers, and consultants who want to apply the method in practice. It also contains a section on what a commissioner of evaluations should know.

Author: Barbara Befani, University of Surrey, independent consultant