During the autumn of 2025, EU member states will begin negotiations on the next Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) for the period 2028–2034. Within the framework of the EU’s international work, the development aid budget is proposed to reach 200 billion euro , with an additional 100 billion euro earmarked for Ukraine. For Sweden, these negotiations represent an opportunity to influence the direction of international development cooperation over the coming decade.
EBA has decided to conduct a study of these negotiations. The purpose is to examine how member states, with an emphasis on Sweden, formulate and pursue their priorities within development policy. The study will also analyze the factors that influence the impact of various priorities on the final outcome.
The analysis is divided into two components: data collection during the ongoing negotiation process (2025–2027) and an outcome analysis after the negotiations have concluded (2027–2028). The authors, Jonas Tallberg and Magnus Lundgren , utilize the *preference attainment model* to measure influence based on how closely the final result aligns with the actors’ original positions. The study is based on interviews and written documentation from the Swedish Ministry for Foreign Affairs.
The project follows up on a previous study of the negotiations regarding the EU’s current instrument for development aid, NDICI. The results are expected to contribute knowledge on how member states act and achieve influence in multilateral negotiations.
Authors:
Jonas Tallberg (Professor of Political Science, Stockholm University) Magnus Lundgren (Associate Professor of Political Science, University of Gothenburg)
Reference group chair:
Anders Pedersen
Project manager at EBA:
Mats Hårsmar