A new EBA study shows that Russia’s growing presence in Africa is affecting the distribution and perception of development cooperation. Supporting Africa’s development at a time of intensifying rivalry between the superpowers requires perseverance, coordination and the clear communication of Western values and development goals.
Maria Perrotta Berlin, of the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE), conducted a study based on geospatial data, conflict mapping and opinion polls. It is based on the premise that Russian actors, including the Wagner Group, have established themselves as key partners in several African countries by offering military services, natural resource assets, and political support in exchange for various forms of cooperation. This model differs significantly from traditional Western aid, which is often linked to democracy, institutional development, and long-term social goals.
Donors react differently to the Russian presence
When Russian military actors establish themselves in a region, Western donors react in various ways. Several donors, including the US and Germany, tend to withdraw from conflict-affected areas where Russian actors are active. At the same time, some donors have adjusted their strategies in light of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Notably, the World Bank and France’s AFD have chosen to intensify or consolidate their efforts, while Sweden is maintaining and, in some cases, increasing its aid in conflict zones.
Russian presence increases support for the US, but reduces trust in democracy
In regions where Russian-linked soldiers are establishing themselves, changes in attitudes can be observed, such as increased support for US leadership. At the same time, however, trust in democratic institutions, electoral processes and values associated with Western aid, such as gender equality and sustainable development, is declining.
– When Western donors withdraw, a vacuum is created that authoritarian actors quickly fill. This underscores the need for a continued presence, better strategic communication and increased coordination between donors. The study also shows how important it is to invest in and develop detailed geographic data, which makes it possible to analyze and track changing geopolitical patterns over time, says Maria Perrotta Berlin.