Credible Explanations of Development Outcomes with Bayesian Theory-Based Evaluation

This workshop introduces an innovative method to conduct theory-based evaluations presented in a new EBA report, Credible Explanations of Development Outcomes: Improving Quality and Rigour with Bayesian Theory- Based Evaluation, by international evaluation expert Barbara Befani.

The report introduces an innovative methodology to conduct theory-based evaluations. It retains several advantages of both qualitative and quantitative methods. This report contains both an in-depth theoretical discussion of the epistemological tenets and a section with practical applications in policy evaluations that is likely to appeal to evaluators, researchers, and consultants who want to apply the method in practice. It also contains a section on what a commissioner of evaluations should know.

During this seminar we will both introduce and explain the this new method but also give evaluators and other people working with evaluation an opportunity to see how the method have been applied in different evaluations.

When? Friday 15 october, 1–3 p.m.


  • Introduction, Kim Forss (moderator). Presentation and introduction of the report, Barbara Befani. Comments, Gustav Petersson, followed by Q&A.
  • What you should know as a commissioner, followed by short Q&A.
  • How to Bayesian TBE, deep dive for evaluators and method geeks, Barbara Befani. Comments, Gustav Petersson, followed by Q&A.

Speakers and discussants:

Barbara Befani, report author, University of Surrey, independent consultant

Gustav Petersson, The Swedish Research Council

Moderator: Kim Forss, EBA

Language: English

Please join the workshop by link in the right column.